---- India is trying to play down the threat issued by Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit during his press conference on April, 7 where he said to the effect that now Kashmir will be discussed before any other matter because (as per Basit) if solution to Kashmir issue is further delayed then it will have serious implications. But government of India (GOI) is naively thinking that it is another hollow threat without realizing that this time this threat has teeth for the simple reason that China is behind it. Therefore if India does not want to face another tragedy (like partition of India in 1947 or fiasco in 1962 Sino-India war) then it should start preparing itself, as given below, for major military show down with Pakistan and may be even with China (which eventually may not remain merely a moral supporter of Pakistan during likely Indo-Pak war on Kashmir) :-
(1)- It is not Pakistan but China is speaking through Basit about Kashmir. India has touched raw nerve of China about ‘economic-corridor’. Everybody knows that ‘economic-corridor’ (including Gwadar Port) through Pakistan is a question of life and death for China for the simple reason that it gives shortcut to China for access to Arabian sea bye-passing Pacific and not so friendly countries of Pacific region and also India. As far perfunctory protest of India about ‘economic-corridor’ through POK it is not taken seriously by China because India itself does not take POK (as integral part of India) seriously and has not done anything to retrieve POK. India considers itself over-smart and thinks that merely by mentioning in the Constitution of India or by unanimous resolution in Parliament that entire J&K is an integral part of India the entire J&K including POK will forever be integral part of India. The absurdity of such delusion of India is already flying in the face due to simple reason that POK is still with Pakistan which makes mockery of India’s assumption / claim that entire J&K is an integral part of India. India does not understand that territories are decided by military power and not by writing it on some paper (howsoever sacred that paper may be).
(2)- But as per Pakistan the subversive activities of India through Indian spy in Baluchistan (which contains substantial part of ‘economic-corridor’ in addition to Gwadar Port) is too much for China and has worked as proverbial last straw. Though India refuted Pakistan’s claim of Indian spy Yadav caught in Baluchistan but India is unconvincing. During debate on this issue in media it was revealed that as per yadav’s family he was out of touch from his family for three months. In this age of mobile phones where Yadav must have been talking to his family in 2-3 days if not daily it raises a question why Yadav’s family did not approach police or embassies through Ministry of External Affairs when Yadav lost contact with his family for three months. Otherwise also instead of taking its own territories (with China and Pakistan) India indulges in rebellious activities of local people against their governments as it did in case of Tamils in Sri Lanka which backfired and ended in gory and horrible end. Therefore there should not be any surprise if India is involved in clandestine activities in Baluchistan, which has again backfired due to China factor.
(3)- Therefore China is playing Arunachal Pradesh ( as a bargaining territory) about entire J&K for Pakistan. China will help Pakistan in demanding entire J&K and Pakistan may end up keeping at least POK if not more (which serves the purpose of China about ‘economic-corridor’) while allowing India to retain whatever J&K is with India. China knows that there is substantial anti-India sentiment in Kashmir and post NIT controversy more of such anti-India sentiment will remain in Kashmir for quite some time. Because political atmosphere in Kashmir is getting vitiated due to removal of local police and by deploying central forces inside the NIT campus of Muslim majority Kashmir valley and by bringing special teams from HRD ministry of GOI led by pro Hindutva BJP. Hence China will persuade Pakistan to refrain from nuclear war and instead China will mobilize world community (in this age where England recently allowed referendum for separation of Scotland) for plebiscite in J&K by raising bogey of Pak nukes falling in the hands of Jihadis / ISIS, Al-Qaeda etc. (by Pakistan selling these nukes due to economic hardship) due to war of smaller Pakistan with much larger India.
(4)- Therefore if India allows Pakistan and China to take lead on and precipitate Kashmir issue and does not prepare for immediate retrieve of POK it will be too late. For this, if such support comes then fine but India should not crucially depend on support of any country against Sino – Pak alliance on Kashmir rather should be prepared for pinpricks from China (on Sino-India border and about Arunachal Pradesh) in order to help Pakistan in Indo-Pak war on Kashmir. For such massive military preparation India should immediately recover Rs 1,000 Trillion tax money out of black money in order to prepare for retrieve of POK even militarily if necessary.
[ If with $ ~ 4 Trillion reserve China can be so powerful then it does not require a genius of political economy to understand that what India will be with these extra $ ~15 Trillion. Based on RTI information and a PIL in Patna High Court as per expose of New Nation TV Channel, in 2011-12 nearly 6.50 lakh farmers earned Rs ~ Two thousand lakh crore (2,000 Trillion) which mostly of course is black money shown as agriculture income (on which there is no income tax) to evade tax and in last mainly 8 years these ~ 1 million tax evaders have shown ~ 2,200 Trillion as agricultural income (where as in 2006 only 85 persons declared Rs 16 million as agricultural income). As per government’s new scheme if 45 % of black money is given as tax then remaining 55 % can be retained by the person. Hence if 45 % of Rs ~ 2,200 Trillion is taken by government as tax on this black money then Rs ~ 1,000 Trillion will come to government as tax. The government of India (GOI) should immediately raise the demand of this Rs ~ 1,000 Trillion tax money from these ~ one million tax evaders (who are misusing & maligning the profession of agriculture to evade tax in a country where thousands of real / genuine farmers are committing suicide every year). GOI can consider declared income minus maximum income from land holding as non-agricultural income hence black money because on this tax has not been paid]
(5)- In addition to military approach India should also mobilize world community (i)- Against Pakistan due to its vulnerability before Jihadi terrorist elements and which is threat to global peace (ii)- Against China (and against its veto right) due to its record about human rights including lack of democracy.
It is hoped, at the hands of Pakistan and China, the government of India will not be caught unawares on Kashmir
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)