Sub:- (i)- Pakistan can take action against JeM etc only at the cost of civil war in Pakistan (ii)- After USA hinting at Laden type operation, India (in a gladiator type frenzy) is after PM Modi to act (iii)- No effective action by India will harm Modi politically.
-- India watched with satisfaction Hamid Mir of Pakistan Geo TV channel (who claimed to have spoken to the Pakistani PM personally) on an Indian TV channel program assuring India that ‘stern action (which Indians believed under US pressure) on the perpetrators of January, 2 Pathankot attack is likely to come within the next 72 hours’. But now the Indian prominent print and electronic media is debating hotly after getting reports that Pakistan has termed evidence provided by India as insufficient - which means the fate of evidences given to Pakistan by India in 2/1 will be same as of 26/11.
To add to India’s woes the USA has given the hint for Osama Bin Laden type covert operation in Pakistan in retaliation to 2/1. This hint is inferred from answer to questions (about America giving Pakistan a long rope years after the Mumbai 26/11 attacks) given by spokesman John Kirby that "We obviously want to see all the perpetrators (of 26/11) to be brought to justice ... We know that that can take a long time. It took an awful long time to bring Osama bin Laden to justice, but we did. So it can be hard."
Hence now when USA has washed its hands off 2/1 the Indian media and political commentators in media (by reminding PM Modi that during his election speeches he projected his macho image and assured India that he as PM will give fitting reply to Pakistan) are vehemently demanding that - ‘[As per "just war" principles of statecraft, terror camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) and leaders of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) etc should be targeted by justifiable retaliation to 2/1 as was done by USA against Osama bin Laden regarding 9/11]’
But here India is forgetting that even if USA had pressurized Pakistan for taking action against perpetrators of 2/1 it was not easy and it would have resulted in civil war in Pakistan by Jihadis (even by inviting ISIS) as mentioned at
But going for Laden type operation is much more difficult and problematic for India despite being ~ 6 times than Pakistan because:-
(1)- India lacks the offensive capability to comprehensively defeat Pakistan in a short war and Laden operation was carried out by USA in secrecy whereas such operation by India will be carried out with full publicity which makes such operation almost impossible.
(2)- There is one more factor of global opinion. Unification of Kashmir is the only solution to Kashmir problem. Pakistan tried militarily to take Kashmir in 1947, 1948, 1965, 1971, during Kargil etc but India never tried militarily to take POK. Hence, notwithstanding J&K, as per Indian constitution, being integral part of India - as per law due to acquiescence and inordinate delay India’s title on J&K is damaged and Pakistan has better title on J&K than India.
(3)- Moreover as per media ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis from Pakistan, India, Afghanistan etc have laid down their lives for Kashmir. On the contrary India has been trying for decades to play over-smart where it does not want to do anything to solve gory & chronic Kashmir problem while expecting theocratic Pakistan to keep quiet about Muslim majority J&K.
(4)- Pathankot attack technically can’t be termed as terrorist attack because military personnel were killed and not civilians.
(5)- India does not have military might and immunity from retaliation (as the USA does) in case nuclear India carries out covert military operation on the soil of nuclear Pakistan [Moreover India will think twice before bombing Pakistan through nukes (which will kill millions of civilians including women, children and old people) but Pakistan full of bloodthirsty Jihadis will not].
(6)- Obviously India is now paying heavy price for not retrieving POK militarily for the last more than six decades.
Though it is absurd for ~ 6 times bigger India (than Pakistan) to expect any help (military or otherwise) from USA to ‘discipline’ Pakistan but given the said circumstances evidently USA (by washing its hands off 2/1) has made weak & uncertain the political future of PM Modi who will now be judged by his capabilities as war leader and not on the basis of his demagoguery.
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)