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Why Zimbabwe can't invade Mozambique
Crédit photo : mg.co.za
Zimbabwe's capacity to carry out its threat to intervene militarily in the conflict in Mozambique between government forces and the former rebel movement Renamo has come under scrutiny.
Analysts this week pointed to diplomatic, financial and logistical shortcomings they said would weigh on any deployment of troops.
Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi this week upped the ante, saying Zimbabwe is on "high alert" and closely monitoring the situation.
His comments follow those of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Christopher Mutsvangwa, who recently told BBC's Focus on Africa programme that "it would be misguided for Renamo to bring instability and expect Zimbabwe to watch".
The Mozambique government has not asked the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or Zimbabwe, with which it enjoys a long political history, for military help.
Mozambican President Armando Guebuza has said that the solution lies in dialogue.
Mutual Defence Pact
Political observers say Zimbabwe, as an SADC member, could not take unilateral military action as this would undermine the regional body.
In 2003 SADC signed a Mutual Defence Pact that encouraged the combination of member states' military forces into a SADC standby force to assist democratically elected governments that were threatened.
"Zimbabwe can certainly act in self-defence should there be any instigation of the conflict affecting the country.
However, it will be more prudent for Zimbabwe to work through SADC and to invoke the tenets of the Mutual Defence Pact in order to ensure there is stability in Mozambique," Trevor Maisiri, the senior analyst of the International Crisis Group, said.
"Unilateral action by Zimbabwe, outside of SADC, will complicate the intervention in Mozambique, as it takes away the collectivity of action on the part of SADC, which we are currently seeing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)," he said.
If Zimbabwe were to intervene and the crisis escalated, the cost of a fully fledged war would put further strain on the treasury, which is already facing a tough juggling act.
By RAY NDLOVU
Read more: Source : http://mg.co.za/article/2013-11-08-00-why-zimbabwe-cant-invade-mozambique
Analysts this week pointed to diplomatic, financial and logistical shortcomings they said would weigh on any deployment of troops.
Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi this week upped the ante, saying Zimbabwe is on "high alert" and closely monitoring the situation.
His comments follow those of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Christopher Mutsvangwa, who recently told BBC's Focus on Africa programme that "it would be misguided for Renamo to bring instability and expect Zimbabwe to watch".
The Mozambique government has not asked the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or Zimbabwe, with which it enjoys a long political history, for military help.
Mozambican President Armando Guebuza has said that the solution lies in dialogue.
Mutual Defence Pact
Political observers say Zimbabwe, as an SADC member, could not take unilateral military action as this would undermine the regional body.
In 2003 SADC signed a Mutual Defence Pact that encouraged the combination of member states' military forces into a SADC standby force to assist democratically elected governments that were threatened.
"Zimbabwe can certainly act in self-defence should there be any instigation of the conflict affecting the country.
However, it will be more prudent for Zimbabwe to work through SADC and to invoke the tenets of the Mutual Defence Pact in order to ensure there is stability in Mozambique," Trevor Maisiri, the senior analyst of the International Crisis Group, said.
"Unilateral action by Zimbabwe, outside of SADC, will complicate the intervention in Mozambique, as it takes away the collectivity of action on the part of SADC, which we are currently seeing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)," he said.
If Zimbabwe were to intervene and the crisis escalated, the cost of a fully fledged war would put further strain on the treasury, which is already facing a tough juggling act.
By RAY NDLOVU
Read more: Source : http://mg.co.za/article/2013-11-08-00-why-zimbabwe-cant-invade-mozambique
